Losing Credibility

It's a holiday today in Paris and I am working in the office. I like working in the office when it is the holidays as the quiet surroundings bring a sense of peace and serenity, especially when you have a big problem on your hands.

This week has got to be the most nerve-racking and morale-deflating week of my life. I have lost my credibility due to the repeated failed attempts to resolve a production issue on the client's side. The problem, in many ways, is complex, and it is not helped by the fact that I was working alone on this, together with the developer who seem to have as much difficulty as I have in deciphering where the issue lie.
As consultants, we are usually put on the firing line first and in my eagerness to move forward, I broke the one rule that should never be broken - I gave advise without first testing it on my end and the advice given was quite a disaster. The client was furious and the matter escalated to upper management. Guess my project manager had a pretty tough time with higher management yesterday, this client is not an easy one to deal with.

My credibility lost and my confidence naturally shaken. It's tough to pick up the pieces and try to move forward, but it's nevertheless a good learning experience. I am glad it is a holiday in Paris today. I miss a hug from my wife....

;-) Today also happens to be my fifth year working in this company ... Nice!

Teachers to be trained to teach Financial Literacy

So, NIE is going to train 500 teachers to teach Financial Literacy over the next 18 months.

NIE is partnering with Citi Foundation to 'build a framework that provides a comprehensive and structured nationwide teacher development education programme to equip teachers in schools with the financial literacy skills,' said an NIE statement.

Prof Lee Sing Kong, Director of NIE said: 'First, we provide teachers with basic financial literacy skills of managing their own finances and thereafter, pedagogical training to empower them with engaging pedagogy to reach out to their students. Equipped with resources and engaging pedagogy for the teaching and learning of financial literacy in a fun and meaningful way, the teachers can apply the financial literacy principles in classroom teaching and enrichment activities for students.'

#interpretation# I think NIE better start paying these teachers a better salary in the event that these teachers decide to make a career change. hahaha...
Financial Literacy is defined in wiki as 'the ability of individuals to make appropriate decisions in managing their personal finances'. Wow. That's a lot of knowledge to impart in order for anyone to make 'appropriate' decisions.

Mr Piyush Gupta, Head of Asean, Markets and Banking and Citi County Officer, Singapore, said it is important to give children a head-start in the disciplines of financial budgeting, planning and investing, to help them better understand how to use financial resources available to meet their goals in life.

#interpretation# I am not too comfortable when financial institutions tie up to 'impart' knowledge to impressionable young people. These institutions earn fat margins on selling exotic and complex financial products - what other better ways to sell these financial products of mass destruction than to teach people how to buy them ...

Stamford Bridge, It's in the Blood

Think me and wifey are on a spectator sports diet this couple of weeks. We are heading for the Chelsea/Everton clash next weekend at Stamford Bridge ... wow wee!

Our First Trip To Wembley Stadium

Wifey and I just returned from the first ever NFL's international series match between Miami Dolphins and the NY Giants at Wembley Stadium.

The London weather was in her usual foul mood and there was constant rain throughout the match, resulting in seven fumbles and a missed field goal for each team. It was a first of sorts for wifey and I. First time at the Wembley stadium - the size and atmosphere was just astonishing, our first time at an NFL match - we were learning about the game as it progresses, and our first cheeseburger since arriving in London.

We took a train to the Wembley Park Tube station followed by a 15 minutes walk up to the main entrance of the Wembley stadium.


The pre-game show included performances by the British band 'The Feeling' as well as R&B singer Jocelyn Brown. John Terry and Lewis Hamilton made guest appearances for the coin toss.


The Gaints eventually topped the Dolphins 13-10, holding off a late challenge in the last two minutes of the last quarter.

Between American football and Soccer, I think I still prefer the latter. Next up, Stamford Bridge. Chelsea Vs Everton 11th Nov.

We are heading to Wembley Stadium!!

Wifey and I are heading to watch the Miami Dolphins Vs the New York Giants at the new Wembley Stadium this Sunday!!
Hoorray!

SORA rates driven by Fed's liquidity machine

The US Federal Reserve has pumped $25.5 billion in liquidity into the financial system so far this week, raising concerns of continued troubles in short-term funding markets.
The central bank released $8.5 billion in cash on Tuesday and $6.5 billion on Wednesday. The intervention came after the Fed pumped out $10.5 billion on Monday.
And look what happens to the SORA! (Singapore Overnight Rate Average). Singapore's soaking up all the liquidity. The possible explanation is this:

a. Singapore banks buys USD using SGD (last three days USD/SGD spiked up to 1.466 compared to the current 1.458)
b. MAS funds the SG banks SGD borrowings at lower rate to soak up the USD (lower SORA)

;-) a good way to profit if you know when the Fed is going to pump out more USD ...

Industrial Action by French Unions over Sarkozy's reform plans

Well the French railway unions have decided to go on a strike tomorrow and friday. This strike will be pitting the railway workers against Mr Sarkozy's resolve to reform the current pension privileges enjoyed by some half million French civil servants. The pension privileges include early retirement at 50, shorter contribution period and generous pension payouts compared to other public sector workers.
The French unions have threatened to bring the transport system to its knees as in previous strikes in 1995 and 2003. This time may be different - as Sarkozy was elected on a reform-focused platform and is believed to have the quiet support of the rest of the nation.

This will be one strike that will seriously jeopardize my travel plans - gosh guess I may just have to find a Rugby World Cup Final ticket and stay in Paris instead! Wifey, is that fine with you?

MAS in Inflation fighting mode

Wow, seems that MAS has began inflation fighting in Singapore. SGD is appreciating across all major currencies as at today.

USD is down almost 4% YTD
EUR is up 3% YTD, falling from a peak of 5%
JPY is down 3% YTD

If viewed at a one-month's window, all currencies are down against the SGD except for the kiwi. So you can almost guess who our major trading partners are ...

Automation - Boon or Bane?

Having worked for 5 years in an IT firm for the finance industry, I cannot help but see automation from both sides of the coin. Financial institutions, since the turn of the century, have embarked on a cost-cutting imperative in order to boost their profit margins. The banks embraced technology wholeheartedly; catch-phrases like 'STP' (Straight-Through-Processing) were coined, to illustrate the ability of using technology to process trades from cradle to grave without manual intervention. The end result is increased productivity and more time or effort can be placed on eliminating exceptions to the well-oiled transaction process.

This increased automation of the finance factory invariably lead to job losses and also increased demand on highly-skilled workers who are both conversant in finance and technology. The increased faith and expenses in technology no doubt provides many rewards but most are oblivious to the dark side of this increased addiction to automation.

Increasingly, I noticed that the concept of STP is hijacked and many users are using this term loosely, relentlessly trying to increase their automation rate across all processes as much as possible. Automation works fine if processes follow a fixed and orderly path. Exceptions from this path can be easily identified and eliminated. However, if in the first place, the path is not predicable, and if there are thousands of possible credible outcomes, any effort at automation will be costly and dangerous.

I recalled an encounter with a client who was happily recounting their efforts at increasing their STP rate. As we dived deeper into their processes, it became apparently that there are some exceptions which are not captured and have serious implications. Jokingly I cracked up, "Yeap, looks like you have STPed your problems as well".

The age of inflation

Mr Alan Greenspan gave various interviews ahead of his new book 'The Age of Turbulence'. In his interviews, he raised the following points:

a. The world economy looks set to enter into an inflationary phase. The last decade marked a disinflationary period due to globalisation - the integration of a billion workers from China to India to Russia had a disinflationary effect on the world economy. The result was low inflation with coupled with even lower rates producing a hefty increase in asset prices. In the next decade, the disinflationary effects will gradually ebb as the world economy reaches a new equilibrium with the additional resources
b. UK home prices look set to tumble. UK housing is more exposed than the US to adjustable-rate mortgages and these are highly interest-rate sensitive
c. Bubbles are inevitable - Humans can't seem to be able to learn from mistakes. "Human nature moves from euphoria to fear"
d. The Fed under his leadership does not prickle bubbles but instead allow a full deflation of the bubble as evident in the dot-com crash. I wonder how the Fed under Bernanke will respond to the current credit crisis - will he prick the bubble by holding rates or will he allow the credit party to continue?

The Fed convenes for a meeting tomorrow for a rate-setting decision. I am hoping that Bernake will not cut rates - this credit crunch needs to be worked off by hard labour and higher savings by the American workers/consumers, not by a bail-out from the Fed.

Life is about Trade-offs?

On my previous trip back home, I had the pleasure of meeting up with a former lecturer in NUS who is now working at an investment bank as an educator. He was sharing with me about his thoughts on decision-making in life and how we actively seek to find a better alternative to our current status.
I didn't think too much about it till I went for an afternoon run today; my thoughts drifted and I started comparing the trade-offs coming here to London from Singapore.
Some trade-offs are easy to quantify: Taking a swim in an Olympic-sized outdoor pool under the nestling morning sun for SGD1 Vs Bumping into bodies in a quarter Olympic-sized heated indoor pool for GBP4. Singapore public pools wins hands down.
Other trade-offs are slightly difficult to quantify: Lying in Hyde Park under the warm summer sun and a cool nice breeze, watching stage one of the Tour de France. Taking nice long runs in the cool dry minty weather, allowing me to stay fresh and dry throughout the run. London doesn't feel so bad after all ..
However, there are some trade-offs which I can never put a price on: Watching my baby nephew grow up, the family dinners, having mum's hands around my shoulder when I am back home late at night for dinner..
Well I guess it is tough trying to work out which alternative is better and as I struggled up a long hard upslope, it suddenly came to me - there is no point trying to make sense of what I have missed out on, instead, focus on the present and make the best out of whatever decisions that I have made. With that, I gasped another mouthful of air and reached the top of that favourite spot of mine in Hampstead Heath.

Interview of Mr Lee Kuan Yew with the IHT

I am not exactly sure when it began, but as I grew older, I am starting, more and more, to appreciate and admire MM Lee Kuan Yew's leadership in carving out a successful city state in an unstable and convulsing Southeast Asia. The underlying ideology for the Singapore political party as MM Lee remarked in his interview with IHT is driven by a pragmatic purpose - to make this place better and make it work. His interview with the IHT is definitely worth a read.