Monday 17 September 2007

The age of inflation

Mr Alan Greenspan gave various interviews ahead of his new book 'The Age of Turbulence'. In his interviews, he raised the following points:

a. The world economy looks set to enter into an inflationary phase. The last decade marked a disinflationary period due to globalisation - the integration of a billion workers from China to India to Russia had a disinflationary effect on the world economy. The result was low inflation with coupled with even lower rates producing a hefty increase in asset prices. In the next decade, the disinflationary effects will gradually ebb as the world economy reaches a new equilibrium with the additional resources
b. UK home prices look set to tumble. UK housing is more exposed than the US to adjustable-rate mortgages and these are highly interest-rate sensitive
c. Bubbles are inevitable - Humans can't seem to be able to learn from mistakes. "Human nature moves from euphoria to fear"
d. The Fed under his leadership does not prickle bubbles but instead allow a full deflation of the bubble as evident in the dot-com crash. I wonder how the Fed under Bernanke will respond to the current credit crisis - will he prick the bubble by holding rates or will he allow the credit party to continue?

The Fed convenes for a meeting tomorrow for a rate-setting decision. I am hoping that Bernake will not cut rates - this credit crunch needs to be worked off by hard labour and higher savings by the American workers/consumers, not by a bail-out from the Fed.